Reducing Test Burden Without Sacrificing Confidence: Bayesian Reliability Testing in Practice
Following on from his excellent SaRS webinar on the 1st July 2026 covering Reliability Demonstration Testing, Pankaj Shrivastava will now be giving us his thoughts on Bayesian Reliability Testing in Practice
Reliability demonstration tests can require large sample sizes, long durations and substantial resources, particularly for highly reliable products. Bayesian methods offer a structured way to combine relevant prior reliability evidence with new test results, potentially enabling a more efficient and informative demonstration.
This webinar introduces Bayesian reliability testing from a practical engineering perspective. It explains prior, likelihood and posterior reliability; shows how qualified prior evidence can influence test sample size; and distinguishes this effect from the role of acceleration factors in determining test duration. A worked case study compares classical and Bayesian reliability demonstration test designs. Particular attention is given to selecting and conservatively representing prior information using technology similarity, test-stress equivalence, model assumptions and common failure mechanisms. Participants will leave with a practical framework for deciding when Bayesian test design is appropriate and how to avoid unjustified confidence.
Reliability and safety practitioners are often required to demonstrate demanding reliability targets despite limited test articles, constrained budgets and long product lives. The webinar presents a disciplined way to use historical evidence while explicitly accounting for uncertainty. It will help SaRS members understand both the opportunities and limitations of Bayesian test design, including how to assess whether prior evidence is technically comparable and sufficiently conservative. The principles are applicable across industries and are especially relevant where testing is expensive, destructive or time-consuming.
The webinar will be applicable to reliability engineers and analysts; RAMS and systems-assurance engineers; safety and reliability managers; product qualification, verification and validation engineers; test engineers; design-assurance and certification professionals; quality and supplier-quality engineers; risk analysts; technical authorities; engineering managers; researchers and postgraduate students in reliability and risk.
Webinar Technical Level: Practitioner
To register for the webinar please click here.
Our speaker for the event is Pankaj Shrivastava.
Pankaj is a Discipline Manager and Principal Advisor in Reliability at Halliburton, with experience in reliability demonstration testing, accelerated testing, Design for Reliability, FMEA, failure analysis and risk-based engineering decisions. His work focuses on translating reliability theory and statistical methods into practical, defensible test strategies for complex engineering systems. He contributes to the international reliability community through professional-society activities, technical presentations, conference participation and collaboration with academic researchers and students.
The webinar will start at 18:00 UK time and will last for approximately 1 hour and 15 minutes.
Starts
Thursday, 29th October 2026 at 6:00pm
Ends
Thursday, 29th October 2026 at 7:15pm