Forecasting Reliability Through Life – Presented by Ms Paula Pritchard and Dr Matthew Stapleton of the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE).

To register for this event please click here. The event is free and is open to both SaRS members and non-members.

During the second half of 2018, AWE investigated using Bayesian Mathematics for forecasting reliability for the life of a product. This work has enabled the further development in AWE’s capability for managing uncertainty and quantifying potential risks in engineered components.

A repeatable and robust model has been applied to enable forecasts of reliability through life. The Forecasting Reliability Through Life (FRTL) study comprised of a Component Sensitivity Study (CSS) and the Random Onset Model (ROM). The ROM is a Los Alamos National Laboratories Bayesian mathematical model for forecasting a distribution of probabilities for the onset of degradation. The ROM suggested that the forecasted degradations for the components under scrutiny were beyond 2050. Furthermore, the ROM provided a formal method for exploring the premise that the onset of degradation of electronic components in a single shot system is less detectable than the onset of degradation for mechanical components.

The webinar will provide an overview of the study; it’s purpose, the methodology used, a description of the findings and the steps that have been taken.

Our Speakers:

Paula Pritchard has been a Reliability lead at AWE for 2 years and has worked in area for 5 years. She has prior experience as a Systems Engineer working on Condition Monitoring techniques, also at AWE. This year marks her 17th year at AWE.

Dr Matthew Stapleton has worked for over 14 years in defence, with 8 years as a statistician at AWE, working on a variety of reliability and safety related applications.


Wednesday, 27th January 2021 at 1:00pm


Wednesday, 27th January 2021 at 2:15pm


Webinar only